Washington’s 4th District
U.S. House · WA-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 27%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (86% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 86% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 92% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| WA-4 | 54.4% | 45.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+10.5 | 54.9%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 26.6% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Newhouse, Dan · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Amanda McKinney · Advanced to the general election | 34.8% | 49,652 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | John Duresky · Advanced to the general election | 29.9% | 42,681 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 96.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated