Advanced to the general election
Amanda McKinney 34.8%
Advanced to the general election
John Duresky 29.9%
Riding profile
WA-4
The question
WA-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 86.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereWA-4 | 93.2% | 6.5% | 0.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +48.3 | 54.3% −47.8 | 5.1% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
WA-4, a mixed riding in WA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 96-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 93% vote share, against 7% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
NEWHOUSE, DAN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Duresky, John
- Republican Open seat
Mckinney, Amanda
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026