Riding profile

WA-4

US House district — WA · Mixed · us wa

The question

WA-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

WA-4, a mixed riding in WA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 96-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 96% vote share, against 4% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NEWHOUSE, DAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Newhouse, Dan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Duresky, John

  • Republican Open seat

    Boehnke, Matthew

  • Republican Open seat

    Mckinney, Amanda

  • Republican Open seat

    Sessler, Jerrod

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
91.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 95.9%
  • Democrat 4.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereWA-4 95.9%4.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +49.3 51.9% −47.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
96.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026