Riding profile

WA-5

US House district — WA · Mixed · us wa

The question

WA-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

WA-5, a mixed riding in WA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BAUMGARTNER, MICHAEL JAMES

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Carmela Conroy 9.1%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Mar 19, 2026 · bychange_research

Republican

Michael Baumgartner 39.4%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Mar 19, 2026 · bychange_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Baumgartner, Michael James

  • Democrat Challenger

    Conroy, Carmela

  • Democrat Challenger

    Fagan, Kevin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mavalwalla, Bajun

  • Democrat Challenger

    Womack, David

  • Other Challenger

    Croft, Aaron Matthew

  • Other Challenger

    Danimus, Ann Marie

  • Other Challenger

    Powell, Nate

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.2%
  • Democrat 43.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereWA-5 56.2%43.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.6 51.9% −8.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 25 578 LV
Republican 47
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 25 578 LV
Republican 53 Democrat 47
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 25 578 LV
Republican 53 Democrat 47
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 25 578 LV
Republican 54 Democrat 46
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 25 578 LV
Republican 54 Democrat 46
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026