Advanced to the general election
Michael Baumgartner 47.4%
Advanced to the general election
Carmela Conroy 18.9%
Riding profile
WA-5
The question
WA-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereWA-5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.2 | 54.3% −9.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
5 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research Contours Inc. | 18–May 25 | 578 | LV | link | |
| Tavern Research Contours Inc. | 18–May 25 | 578 | LV | link | |
| Tavern Research Contours Inc. | 18–May 25 | 578 | LV | link | |
| Tavern Research Contours Inc. | 18–May 25 | 578 | LV | link | |
| Tavern Research Contours Inc. | 18–May 25 | 578 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
WA-5, a mixed riding in WA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
BAUMGARTNER, MICHAEL JAMES
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Baumgartner, Michael James
-
Democrat Challenger Conroy, Carmela
- Other Challenger
Croft, Aaron Matthew
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026