Washington’s 8th District
U.S. House · WA-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 92% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 92% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| WA-8 | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+5.2 | 43.9%−4.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.6% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Kim Schrier · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Kim Schrier · Advanced to the general election | 53.8% | 102,853 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Spencer Meline · Advanced to the general election | 15.9% | 30,324 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 8.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 20.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated