Riding profile

WA-10

US House district — WA · Mixed · us wa

The question

WA-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

WA-10, a mixed riding in WA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STRICKLAND, MARILYN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Strickland, Marilyn

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.6%
  • Republican 38.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereWA-10 61.6%38.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.7 46.6% −8.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
17.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026