Washington’s 10th District
U.S. House · WA-10
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| WA-10 | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+9.5 | 43.9%−8.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 9.5% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Marilyn Strickland · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Marilyn Strickland · Advanced to the general election | 47.4% | 73,689 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Chris D. Chung · Advanced to the general election | 31.5% | 48,953 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 17.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 28.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated