Washington’s 3rd District

U.S. House · WA-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 55.0%

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, incumbent
Republican 45.0%

John Braun

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 87% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	92%
Orbit	Democrat	87%
50/50 blend	Democrat	89%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
WA-3	55.0%	45.0%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+0.1	43.9%+1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Change Research Northwest Progressive Institute	19–Oct 21, 2026	551	likely voters	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) 45 John Braun (R) 44	See the poll
Dhm Research Oregon Public Broadcasting	17–Sep 27, 2026	543	likely voters	John Braun (R) 48 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) 47	See the poll
Emerson College Northwest Progressive Institute	8–Jul 10, 2026	500	likely voters	John Braun (R) 43 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) 42	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 1	25–Apr 29, 2026	982	likely voters	John Braun (R) 41 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) 34	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 2	25–Apr 29, 2026	982	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 45 Generic Republican (R) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.3% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	John Braun · Advanced to the general election	39.7%	85,064 votes
Top-two primary	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez · Advanced to the general election	36.4%	78,025 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
source
Republican Challenger

John Braun
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 3.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 10.6 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

WA-10 Democrat, safe seat
WA-9 Democrat, safe seat
WA-7 Democrat, safe seat
WA-6 Democrat, safe seat
WA-8 Democrat, safe seat
WA-1 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026