Riding profile

PA-4

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.8%

    Madeleine Dean incumbent

  • Republican 35.3%

    Aurora Stuski

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HerePA-4 64.8%35.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +10.4 44.9% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

PA-4, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DEAN, MADELEINE

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

MADELEINE DEAN 100.0%

88,286 votes

Republican primary

Winner

AURORA STUSKI 100.0%

35,116 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Dean, Madeleine

  • Republican Open seat

    Aurora Stuski

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
18.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026