Riding profile

PA-4

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

PA-4, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DEAN, MADELEINE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Dean, Madeleine

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.0%
  • Republican 38.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HerePA-4 62.0%38.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +10.1 46.6% −8.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
18.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026