Winner
BRENDAN F BOYLE 100.0%
Riding profile
PA-2
The question
PA-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 53.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HerePA-2 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +22.5 | 44.9% −21.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
PA-2, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 77% vote share, against 23% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
BOYLE, BRENDAN F
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
JESSICA ARRIAGA 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Boyle, Brendan F
-
Republican Open seat Jessica Arriaga
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026