Riding profile

PA-6

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-6: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

PA-6, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HOULAHAN, CHRISSY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Houlahan, Chrissy

  • Republican Challenger

    Young, Martin

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.2%
  • Republican 40.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HerePA-6 59.2%40.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.3 46.6% −5.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
12.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026