Riding profile

PA-1

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

PA-1, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FITZPATRICK, BRIAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fitzpatrick, Brian

  • Democrat Challenger

    Harvie, Robert J

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hunt, Tracy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Simonelli, Lucia Dora

  • Democrat Challenger

    Strickler, Robert J

  • Democrat Challenger

    Zeltakalns, Michael

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.3
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.7%
  • Democrat 46.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-1 53.7%46.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +7.0 51.9% −5.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Global Strategy Group 19–Mar 22 400 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 42
link
Public Policy Polling 10–Oct 11 585 LV
Democrat 41 Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026