Pennsylvania’s 1st District

U.S. House · PA-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 60% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.9%

Brian Fitzpatrick, incumbent
Democrat 49.1%

Bob Harvie

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 53% chance (60% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	60%
Orbit	Republican	53%
50/50 blend	Republican	56%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
PA-1	50.9%	49.1%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+7.0	54.9%−5.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

7 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University The Philadelphia Inquirer	16–Oct 22, 2026	400	likely voters	Bob Harvie (D) 48 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 46	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	1–Oct 8, 2026	1,032	likely voters	Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 46 Bob Harvie (D) 46	See the poll
Public Opinion Strategies NRCC	11–Sep 14, 2026	400	registered voters	Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 51 Bob Harvie (D) 42	See the poll
Gqr House Majority PAC	19–Aug 23, 2026	400	likely voters	Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 49 Bob Harvie (D) 48	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	5–Aug 9, 2026	500	likely voters	Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 47 Bob Harvie (D) 43	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	19–Mar 22, 2026	400	likely voters	Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 48 Bob Harvie (D) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	10–Oct 11, 2025	585	likely voters	Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 41 Bob Harvie (D) 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.7% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Brian Fitzpatrick · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Bob Harvie	65.1%	52,094 votes
Republican primary	Brian Fitzpatrick	100.0%	44,365 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Brian Fitzpatrick
source
Democrat Challenger

Bob Harvie
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 12.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.9 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

PA-2 Democrat, safe seat
PA-4 Democrat, safe seat
PA-3 Democrat, safe seat
PA-5 Democrat, safe seat
PA-6 Democrat, safe seat
PA-7 Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026