Winner
BOB HARVIE 65.1%
Riding profile
PA-1
The question
PA-1: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 97%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HerePA-1 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.4 | 54.3% −5.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gqr House Majority PAC | 19–Aug 23 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Global Strategy Group | 5–Aug 9 | 500 | LV | link | |
| Global Strategy Group | 19–Mar 22 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 10–Oct 11 | 585 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
PA-1, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
FITZPATRICK, BRIAN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
BRIAN FITZPATRICK 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Fitzpatrick, Brian
-
Democrat Challenger Harvie, Robert J
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026