Pennsylvania’s 7th District

U.S. House · PA-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.7%

Bob Brooks
Republican 46.3%

Ryan Mackenzie, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 78% chance (85% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	85%
Orbit	Democrat	78%
50/50 blend	Democrat	82%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
PA-7	53.7%	46.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.2	43.9%+2.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University The Philadelphia Inquirer	16–Oct 22, 2026	401	likely voters	Bob Brooks (D) 49 Ryan E. Mackenzie (R) 44	See the poll
Muhlenberg College	6–Oct 15, 2026	529	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Franklin & Marshall College	9–Sep 20, 2026	350	registered voters	Bob Brooks (D) 45 Ryan E. Mackenzie (R) 40	See the poll
Gbao House Majority PAC	Jun 29, 2026 – Jul 2, 2026	—	likely voters	Bob Brooks (D) 47 Ryan E. Mackenzie (R) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	15.5% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Ryan Mackenzie · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Bob Brooks	41.0%	28,232 votes
Republican primary	Ryan Mackenzie	100.0%	35,048 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Ryan Mackenzie
source
Democrat Challenger

Bob Brooks
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 1.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.5 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

PA-4 Democrat, safe seat
PA-1 Republican, toss-up
PA-8 Democrat, toss-up
PA-6 Democrat, safe seat
PA-9 Republican, safe seat
PA-5 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026