Riding profile

PA-7

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-7: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

PA-7, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MACKENZIE, RYAN EDWARD

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Bob Brooks 26%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll May 17, 2026 · bytavern_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mackenzie, Ryan Edward

  • Democrat Challenger

    Brooks, Bob

  • Democrat Challenger

    Crosswell, Ryan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcclure, Lamont

  • Democrat Challenger

    Obando-Derstine, Carol

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pinsley, Mark

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
86%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.6%
  • Republican 48.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HerePA-7 51.6%48.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −0.2 46.6% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Gbao House Majority PAC Jun 29 – Jul 2 — LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
1.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026