Winner
BOB BROOKS 41.0%
Riding profile
PA-7
The question
PA-7: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.6
- P(close race)
- 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HerePA-7 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −0.5 | 44.9% +1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gbao House Majority PAC | Jun 29 – Jul 2 | — | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
PA-7, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MACKENZIE, RYAN EDWARD
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
RYAN MACKENZIE 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Mackenzie, Ryan Edward
- Democrat Challenger
Brooks, Bob
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026