Pennsylvania’s 8th District

U.S. House · PA-8

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 38%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.1%

Paige Cognetti
Republican 46.9%

Rob Bresnahan Jr, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 77% chance (82% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	82%
Orbit	Democrat	77%
50/50 blend	Democrat	79%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
PA-8	53.1%	46.9%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.8	43.9%+3.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University The Philadelphia Inquirer	16–Oct 22, 2026	402	likely voters	Paige Cognetti (D) 51 Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) 47	See the poll
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	396	likely voters	Paige Cognetti (D) 52 Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) 48	See the poll
Lake Research Partners House Majority PAC	18–Jun 23, 2026	400	likely voters	Paige Cognetti (D) 47 Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) 45	See the poll
Impact Research	8–Jun 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Paige Cognetti (D) 46 Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	27–Aug 28, 2025	615	registered voters	Paige Cognetti (D) 45 Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Rob Bresnahan Jr · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Paige Cognetti	100.0%	58,726 votes
Republican primary	Rob Bresnahan Jr	100.0%	38,075 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Rob Bresnahan Jr
source
Democrat Challenger

Paige Cognetti
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 1.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

PA-7 Democrat, competitive
PA-9 Republican, safe seat
PA-1 Republican, toss-up
PA-4 Democrat, safe seat
PA-6 Democrat, safe seat
PA-2 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026