Winner
PAIGE COGNETTI 100.0%
Riding profile
PA-8
The question
PA-8: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.6
- P(close race)
- 17%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HerePA-8 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −1.0 | 44.9% +1.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners House Majority PAC | 18–Jun 23 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Impact Research | 8–Jun 11 | 500 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC | 27–Aug 28 | 615 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
PA-8, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
BRESNAHAN, ROB
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
ROB BRESNAHAN JR 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Bresnahan, Rob
- Democrat Challenger
Cognetti, Paige
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026