Winner
MARY GAY SCANLON 100.0%
Riding profile
PA-5
The question
PA-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 41.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HerePA-5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +16.5 | 44.9% −15.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
PA-5, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 71% vote share, against 29% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
SCANLON, MARY GAY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
NICK MANGANARO 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Scanlon, Mary Gay
-
Republican Challenger Manganaro, Nicholas Waln Morris
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026