Riding profile

PA-3

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
100.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 100.0%

    Christopher M. Rabb

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat
HerePA-3 100.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +45.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

PA-3, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 100-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 100% vote share, against undefined% for , and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

EVANS, DWIGHT

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

CHRIS RABB 44.6%

65,782 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rabb, Christopher M.

  • Other Open seat

    Mahoney, Dennis Joseph

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
100.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026