Riding profile

PA-3

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

PA-3, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 100-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 100% vote share, against 0% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

EVANS, DWIGHT

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Ala Stanford 28%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Apr 2, 2026 · bypublic_policy_polling

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Evans, Dwight

  • Democrat Open seat

    Carter, Cole

  • Democrat Open seat

    Cephas, Morgan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Jackson, Jahmiel

  • Democrat Open seat

    Martin, Isaiah T III

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mcconnie-Saad, Pablo Ivan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Morris, Karl

  • Democrat Open seat

    Oxman, David

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rabb, Christopher M.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Stanford, Ala Dr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Street, Sharif

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
99.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 100.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HerePA-3 100.0%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +48.1 46.6% −46.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
100.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026