Pennsylvania’s 11th District
U.S. House · PA-11
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 84% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 98% |
| Orbit | Republican | 84% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 91% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| PA-11 | 57.5% | 42.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.6 | 54.9%−12.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.5% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Lloyd K Smucker · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Nancy Mannion | 100.0% | 41,107 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Lloyd K Smucker | 100.0% | 54,169 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 25.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated