Riding profile

PA-11

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-11: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

PA-11, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMUCKER, LLOYD K.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Smucker, Lloyd K.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Klimm, Sarah Renee

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mannion, Nancy

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.2%
  • Democrat 39.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-11 60.2%39.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +13.6 51.9% −12.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026