Riding profile

PA-11

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-11: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.6%

    Lloyd K. Smucker incumbent

  • Democrat 42.4%

    Nancy Mannion

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-11 57.6%42.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +12.7 54.3% −11.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

PA-11, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMUCKER, LLOYD K.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

NANCY MANNION 100.0%

41,107 votes

Republican primary

Winner

LLOYD K SMUCKER 100.0%

54,169 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Smucker, Lloyd K.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mannion, Nancy

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026