Riding profile

PA-10

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-10: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

PA-10, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

PERRY, SCOTT

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Perry, Scott

  • Democrat Challenger

    Douglas, Justin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Stelson, Janelle

  • Other Challenger

    Harman, Isabelle A

  • Republican Challenger

    Dalton, Karen Lynn Ms.

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
78%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.0%
  • Republican 48.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HerePA-10 52.0%48.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +0.1 46.6% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Normington, Petts & Associates 20–Apr 23 400 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 45
link
Public Policy Polling Republicans Against Perry 18–Nov 19 549 RV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 10–Jul 11 559 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
1.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026