Winner
JANELLE STELSON 67.4%
Riding profile
PA-10
The question
PA-10: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HerePA-10 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −0.5 | 44.9% +1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 20–Apr 23 | 400 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling Republicans Against Perry | 18–Nov 19 | 549 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC | 10–Jul 11 | 559 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
PA-10, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
PERRY, SCOTT
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
SCOTT PERRY 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Perry, Scott
- Democrat Challenger
Stelson, Janelle
- Other Challenger
Harman, Isabelle A
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026