Pennsylvania’s 10th District

U.S. House · PA-10

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 41%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.7%

Janelle Stelson
Republican 47.3%

Scott Perry, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 77% chance (78% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	78%
Orbit	Democrat	77%
50/50 blend	Democrat	78%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
PA-10	52.7%	47.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−2.2	43.9%+3.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University The Philadelphia Inquirer	16–Oct 22, 2026	404	likely voters	Scott Perry (R) 48 Janelle Stelson (D) 48	See the poll
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	5–Oct 11, 2026	300	likely voters	Janelle Stelson (D) 49 Scott Perry (R) 46	See the poll
Franklin & Marshall College	9–Sep 20, 2026	378	registered voters	Janelle Stelson (D) 47 Scott Perry (R) 44	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates	20–Apr 23, 2026	400	registered voters	Janelle Stelson (D) 51 Scott Perry (R) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Republicans Against Perry	18–Nov 19, 2025	549	registered voters	Janelle Stelson (D) 48 Scott Perry (R) 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	10–Jul 11, 2025	559	registered voters	Janelle Stelson (D) 46 Scott Perry (R) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.6% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Scott Perry · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Janelle Stelson	67.4%	42,397 votes
Republican primary	Scott Perry	100.0%	45,900 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Scott Perry
source
Democrat Challenger

Janelle Stelson
source
Other Challenger

Harman, Isabelle A

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 1.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

PA-11 Republican, safe seat
PA-13 Republican, safe seat
PA-9 Republican, safe seat
PA-6 Democrat, safe seat
PA-4 Democrat, safe seat
PA-7 Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026