Winner
BETH FARNHAM 100.0%
Riding profile
PA-13
The question
PA-13: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HerePA-13 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +23.7 | 54.3% −22.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
PA-13, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 69% vote share, against 31% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
JOYCE, JOHN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
JOHN JOYCE 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Joyce, John
-
Democrat Challenger Farnham, Elizabeth Rhoads
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026