Riding profile

PA-13

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-13: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

PA-13, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 71% vote share, against 29% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JOYCE, JOHN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Joyce, John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Farnham, Elizabeth Rhoads

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
42.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 71.2%
  • Democrat 28.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-13 71.2%28.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +24.5 51.9% −23.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
48.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026