Riding profile

PA-14

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-14: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

PA-14, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RESCHENTHALER, GUY MR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Reschenthaler, Guy Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bradstock, David Alan

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.8%
  • Democrat 36.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-14 63.8%36.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.1 51.9% −15.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026