Pennsylvania’s 17th District
U.S. House · PA-17
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 92% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 92% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| PA-17 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+5.0 | 43.9%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.9% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Chris Deluzio · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Chris Deluzio | 100.0% | 83,791 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Tony Guy | 53.3% | 19,581 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 7.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated