Pennsylvania’s 16th District
U.S. House · PA-16
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 87% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 98% |
| Orbit | Republican | 87% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 93% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| PA-16 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+14.3 | 54.9%−13.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.1% |
|---|
Current member
Mike Kelly · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Justin Wagner | 100.0% | 49,371 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mike Kelly | 100.0% | 44,236 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 27.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 16.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated