Riding profile

PA-16

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-16: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.3%

    George J Jr Kelly incumbent

  • Democrat 41.7%

    Justin Wagner

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-16 58.3%41.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +13.4 54.3% −12.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

PA-16, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KELLY, GEORGE J JR

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

JUSTIN WAGNER 100.0%

49,371 votes

Republican primary

Winner

MIKE KELLY 100.0%

44,236 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kelly, George J Jr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wagner, Justin

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026