Riding profile

PA-16

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-16: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

PA-16, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KELLY, GEORGE J JR

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kelly, George J Jr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wagner, Justin

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.0%
  • Democrat 39.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-16 61.0%39.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +14.3 51.9% −12.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026