Riding profile

PA-12

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

PA-12, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LEE, SUMMER

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Lee, Summer

  • Democrat Challenger

    Forgie, Adam Robert

  • Democrat Challenger

    Parker, William

  • Republican Challenger

    Fechter, Leonard Benson

  • Republican Challenger

    Hayes, James Dr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.4%
  • Republican 40.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HerePA-12 59.4%40.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.6 46.6% −6.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026