Riding profile

PA-15

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-15: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.9%

    Glenn Thompson incumbent

  • Democrat 34.1%

    Raymond Allen Bilger

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-15 65.9%34.1%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +21.0 54.3% −20.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

PA-15, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

THOMPSON, GLENN MR.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

RAY BILGER 100.0%

34,963 votes

Republican primary

Winner

GLENN GT THOMPSON 100.0%

53,352 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Thompson, Glenn Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bilger, Raymond Allen

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
42.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026