Pennsylvania’s 15th District
U.S. House · PA-15
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| PA-15 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+21.9 | 54.9%−20.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.9% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Glenn Gt Thompson · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Ray Bilger | 100.0% | 34,963 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Glenn Gt Thompson | 100.0% | 53,352 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 42.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 31.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated