Riding profile

PA-15

US House district — PA · Mixed · us pa

The question

PA-15: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

PA-15, a mixed riding in PA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 69% vote share, against 31% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

THOMPSON, GLENN MR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Thompson, Glenn Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bilger, Raymond Allen

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 68.5%
  • Democrat 31.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HerePA-15 68.5%31.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +21.9 51.9% −20.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
42.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026