New Hampshire’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NH-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 58.3%

Maggie Goodlander, incumbent
Republican 40.4%

Lily Tang Williams
Other 1.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 89% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	99%
Orbit	Democrat	89%
50/50 blend	Democrat	94%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NH-2	58.3%	40.4%	1.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+3.4	43.9%−3.4	1.2%

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

10 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	997	likely voters	Democrat 56 Republican 41	See the poll
St. Anselm	19–Oct 20, 2026	811	likely voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 54 Lily Tang Williams (R) 38	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	694	likely voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 56 Lily Tang Williams (R) 35 Robbie Mahrou (Ind.) 3	See the poll
St. Anselm	17–Aug 18, 2026	701	likely voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 50 Lily Tang Williams (R) 35	See the poll
St. Anselm	24–Jun 25, 2026	802	registered voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 50 Lily Tang Williams (R) 31	See the poll
St. Anselm	16–Mar 18, 2026	739	registered voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 48 Lily Tang Williams (R) 36	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	15–Jan 19, 2026	1,094	likely voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 54 Lily Tang Williams (R) 40	See the poll
St. Anselm	18–Nov 19, 2025	1,102	registered voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 40 Lily Tang Williams (R) 35	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 23, 2025	508	likely voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 51 Lily Tang Williams (R) 39	See the poll
St. Anselm	26–Aug 27, 2025	881	registered voters	Maggie Goodlander (D) 49 Lily Tang Williams (R) 31	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Maggie Goodlander · Democrat

Primary results

Held September 8, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Maggie Goodlander	81.8%	59,817 votes
Republican primary	Lily Tang Williams	64.9%	31,402 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Maggie Goodlander
source
Republican Challenger

Lily Tang Williams
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 5.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NH-1 Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026