Stefany Shaheen 22%
Riding profile
NH-1
The question
NH-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Editorial read
NH-1, a mixed riding in NH, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
PAPPAS, CHRIS
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
Hollie Noveletsky 16%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Pappas, Chris
- Democrat Open seat
Beriont, Carleigh
- Democrat Open seat
Chadzynski, Sarah
- Democrat Open seat
Howard, Heath
- Democrat Open seat
Shaheen, Stefany
- Democrat Open seat
Sullivan, Maura Corby
- Democrat Open seat
Urrutia, Christian
-
Republican Open seat Bailey, Melissa
- Republican Open seat
Bright, Chris
- Republican Open seat
Cole, Brian
- Republican Open seat
Dilorenzo, Anthony
- Republican Open seat
Girard, Elizabeth
- Republican Open seat
Noveletsky, Hollie T
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNH-1 | 56.3% | 43.3% | 0.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +4.4 | 46.6% −3.4 | 5.4% −5.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026