New Hampshire’s 1st District

U.S. House · NH-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 55.6%

Stefany Shaheen
Republican 44.1%

Anthony DiLorenzo

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 92% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	94%
Orbit	Democrat	92%
50/50 blend	Democrat	93%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NH-1	55.6%	44.1%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+0.7	43.9%+0.2	1.2%−0.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	1,029	likely voters	Democrat 56 Republican 43	See the poll
St. Anselm	19–Oct 20, 2026	861	likely voters	Stefany Shaheen (D) 46 Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 42	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	707	likely voters	Stefany Shaheen (D) 46 Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.3% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Pappas, Chris · Democrat

Primary results

Held September 8, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Stefany Shaheen	36.9%	29,571 votes
Republican primary	Anthony DiLorenzo	51.5%	29,409 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Stefany Shaheen
source
Republican Open seat

Anthony DiLorenzo
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 7.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 12.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NH-2 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026