Riding profile

NH-1

US House district — NH · Mixed · us nh

The question

NH-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.7%
  • Republican 40.2%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNH-1 58.7%40.2%1.1%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +4.4 44.9% −4.7 5.1% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NH-1, a mixed riding in NH, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PAPPAS, CHRIS

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Pappas, Chris

  • Democrat Open seat

    Beriont, Carleigh

  • Democrat Open seat

    Chadzynski, Sarah

  • Democrat Open seat

    Howard, Heath

  • Democrat Open seat

    Shaheen, Stefany

  • Democrat Open seat

    Sullivan, Maura Corby

  • Democrat Open seat

    Urrutia, Christian

  • Republican Open seat

    Bailey, Melissa

  • Republican Open seat

    Bright, Chris

  • Republican Open seat

    Cole, Brian

  • Republican Open seat

    Dilorenzo, Anthony

  • Republican Open seat

    Girard, Elizabeth

  • Republican Open seat

    Noveletsky, Hollie T

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
7.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026