Indiana’s 3rd District
U.S. House · IN-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN-3 | 60.9% | 38.0% | 1.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+17.0 | 54.9%−16.9 | 1.2%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.3% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Kelly Thompson | 100.0% | 21,146 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Marlin A. Stutzman | 68.2% | 39,730 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 33.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated