Riding profile

IN-3

US House district — IN · Mixed · us in

The question

IN-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

IN-3, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Thompson, Kelly Elizabeth

  • Republican Challenger

    Stutzman, Marlin A

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.8%
  • Democrat 35.1%
  • Other 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereIN-3 63.8%35.1%1.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.1 51.9% −16.8 5.4% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026