Winner
Kelly Thompson 100.0%
Riding profile
IN-3
The question
IN-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereIN-3 | 60.7% | 37.5% | 1.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +15.8 | 54.3% −16.8 | 5.1% −3.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
IN-3, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Marlin A. Stutzman 68.2%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Thompson, Kelly Elizabeth
- Republican Challenger
Stutzman, Marlin A
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026