Riding profile

IN-1

US House district — IN · Mixed · us in

The question

IN-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IN-1, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MRVAN, FRANK J.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mrvan, Frank J.

  • Republican Challenger

    Green, Jennifer-Ruth

  • Republican Challenger

    Regnitz, Barb

  • Republican Challenger

    Schenke, James

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.6%
  • Republican 42.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIN-1 57.6%42.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.7 46.6% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
8.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026