Winner
Frank J. Mrvan 80.2%
Riding profile
IN-1
The question
IN-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereIN-1 | 60.3% | 39.6% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +6.0 | 44.9% −5.4 | 5.1% −4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
IN-1, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MRVAN, FRANK J.
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Barb Regnitz 45.8%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Mrvan, Frank J.
-
Republican Challenger Regnitz, Barb
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026