Riding profile

IN-6

US House district — IN · Mixed · us in

The question

IN-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

IN-6, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SHREVE, JEFFERSON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Shreve, Jefferson

  • Democrat Challenger

    Baker, Nicholas Frederick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wirth, Cynthia (Cinde)

  • Republican Challenger

    Brown, Sarah Janisse

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.7%
  • Democrat 35.4%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereIN-6 62.7%35.4%1.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +16.1 51.9% −16.5 5.4% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026