Indiana’s 6th District
U.S. House · IN-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 94% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN-6 | 59.8% | 38.2% | 1.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+16.0 | 54.9%−16.7 | 1.2%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.3% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Jefferson Shreve · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Cynthia (Cinde) Wirth | 58.7% | 13,656 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jefferson Shreve | 53.1% | 27,814 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 32.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 21.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated