Indiana’s 9th District

U.S. House · IN-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 60.4%

Erin Houchin, incumbent
Democrat 39.3%

Brad A. Meyer

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 93% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	> 99%
Orbit	Republican	93%
50/50 blend	Republican	96%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-9	60.4%	39.3%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+16.5	54.9%−15.6	1.2%−0.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Erin Houchin · Republican

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Brad A. Meyer	37.9%	12,788 votes
Republican primary	Erin Houchin	100.0%	51,165 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Erin Houchin
source
Democrat Challenger

Brad A. Meyer
source
Other Challenger

Taylor, Floyd

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 31.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 21.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

IN-6 Republican, safe seat
IN-8 Republican, safe seat
IN-7 Democrat, safe seat
IN-5 Republican, toss-up
IN-4 Republican, safe seat
IN-3 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026