Winner
André Carson 62.4%
Riding profile
IN-7
The question
IN-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 51.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereIN-7 | 75.1% | 24.0% | 0.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +20.7 | 44.9% −20.9 | 5.1% −4.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
IN-7, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
CARSON, ANDRE
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Patrick McAuley 84.4%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Carson, Andre
-
Republican Open seat Patrick McAuley
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026