Riding profile

IN-8

US House district — IN · Mixed · us in

The question

IN-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

IN-8, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MESSMER, MARK MR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Messmer, Mark Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Allen, Mary Theresa

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.7%
  • Democrat 33.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereIN-8 66.7%33.2%0.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +20.0 51.9% −18.7 5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026