Winner
Mary Allen 66.7%
Riding profile
IN-8
The question
IN-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereIN-8 | 63.6% | 35.6% | 0.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +18.7 | 54.3% −18.8 | 5.1% −4.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
IN-8, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MESSMER, MARK MR.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Mark Messmer 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Messmer, Mark Mr.
-
Democrat Challenger Allen, Mary Theresa
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026