Indiana’s 4th District

U.S. House · IN-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 60.8%

Jim Baird, incumbent
Democrat 37.1%

Drew Cox
Other 2.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	> 99%
Orbit	Republican	95%
50/50 blend	Republican	98%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-4	60.8%	37.1%	2.1%
National averageUnited States	44.0%+16.8	54.7%−17.6	1.3%+0.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Jim Baird · Republican

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Drew Cox	30.4%	7,550 votes
Republican primary	Jim Baird	60.5%	37,855 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Jim Baird
source
Democrat Challenger

Drew Cox
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 33.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

IN-7 Democrat, safe seat
IN-5 Republican, toss-up
IN-2 Republican, safe seat
IN-1 Democrat, safe seat
IN-6 Republican, safe seat
IN-8 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026