Indiana’s 4th District
U.S. House · IN-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN-4 | 60.7% | 37.5% | 1.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+16.8 | 54.9%−17.4 | 1.2%+0.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.4% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Jim Baird · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Drew Cox | 30.4% | 7,550 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jim Baird | 60.5% | 37,855 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 33.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated