Riding profile

IN-4

US House district — IN · Mixed · us in

The question

IN-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

IN-4, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BAIRD, JAMES R DR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Baird, James R Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cox, Drew

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mackey, Joseph William Mr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcpherson, Paul Bryant

  • Republican Challenger

    Haggard, Craig

  • Republican Challenger

    Hustedt-Mai, Anthony D

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.6%
  • Democrat 34.6%
  • Other 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereIN-4 63.6%34.6%1.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +16.9 51.9% −17.2 5.4% −3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026