Winner
Drew Cox 30.4%
Riding profile
IN-4
The question
IN-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereIN-4 | 60.5% | 37.0% | 2.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +15.6 | 54.3% −17.3 | 5.1% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
IN-4, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
BAIRD, JAMES R DR.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Jim Baird 60.5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Baird, James R Dr.
-
Democrat Challenger Cox, Drew
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026