Indiana’s 5th District

U.S. House · IN-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 39%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 52.0%

Victoria Spartz, incumbent
Democrat 46.2%

J.D. Ford
Other 1.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 70% chance (79% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	79%
Orbit	Republican	70%
50/50 blend	Republican	75%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
IN-5	52.0%	46.2%	1.8%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+8.1	54.9%−8.7	1.2%+0.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Quantus Insights	21–Oct 22, 2026	634	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 45	See the poll
Expedition Strategies House Majority PAC	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	—	likely voters	Victoria Spartz (R) 48 J.D. Ford (D) 47	See the poll
Impact Research	16–Jul 20, 2026	—	likely voters	Victoria Spartz (R) 48 J.D. Ford (D) 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.4% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Victoria Spartz · Republican

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	J.D. Ford	42.5%	17,608 votes
Republican primary	Victoria Spartz	59.9%	33,695 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Victoria Spartz
source
Democrat Challenger

J.D. Ford
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 18.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.6 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

IN-7 Democrat, safe seat
IN-6 Republican, safe seat
IN-3 Republican, safe seat
IN-4 Republican, safe seat
IN-2 Republican, safe seat
IN-9 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026