Riding profile

IN-5

US House district — IN · Mixed · us in

The question

IN-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

IN-5, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SPARTZ, VICTORIA

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Spartz, Victoria

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ford, James (J.D.) David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Franklin, Jackson Bailey

  • Democrat Challenger

    Goss, Phil

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mckenna, Dylan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pickett, Deborah A

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.4%
  • Democrat 41.6%
  • Other 2.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereIN-5 55.4%41.6%2.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.8 51.9% −10.2 5.4% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
18.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026