Winner
J.D. Ford 42.5%
Riding profile
IN-5
The question
IN-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 9%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereIN-5 | 52.2% | 44.8% | 3.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +7.2 | 54.3% −9.5 | 5.1% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 16–Jul 20 | — | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
IN-5, a mixed riding in IN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
SPARTZ, VICTORIA
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 5, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Victoria Spartz 59.9%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Spartz, Victoria
-
Democrat Challenger Ford, James (J.D.) David
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026