Riding profile

SD-AL

US House district — SD · Mixed · us sd

The question

SD-AL: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

SD-AL, a mixed riding in SD, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JOHNSON, DUSTY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Johnson, Dusty

  • Democrat Open seat

    Gronli, Nicole

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mawhiney, Billy

  • Republican Open seat

    Crabtree, Casey

  • Republican Open seat

    Jackley, Marty

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 68.5%
  • Democrat 31.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereSD-AL 68.5%31.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +21.8 51.9% −20.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
44.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026