South Dakota — at-large district

U.S. House · SD-AL

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 59.9%

Marty Jackley
Democrat 40.1%

Nikki Gronli

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	> 99%
Orbit	Republican	> 99%
50/50 blend	Republican	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
SD-AL	59.9%	40.1%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+16.0	54.9%−14.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota \| South Dakota News Watch	12–Oct 14, 2026	500	likely voters	Marty Jackley (R) 60 Nikki Gronli (D) 32	See the poll
Lake Research Partners	26–Aug 30, 2026	500	likely voters	Marty Jackley (R) 47 Nikki Gronli (D) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.7% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Johnson, Dusty · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Nikki Gronli	0.0%
Republican primary	Marty Jackley	79.2%	103,074 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Nikki Gronli

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Nikki Gronli
source
Republican Open seat

Marty Jackley
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 44.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.8 points.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026