Riding profile

SD-AL

US House district — SD · Mixed · us sd

The question

SD-AL: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.8%
  • Democrat 34.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereSD-AL 65.8%34.2%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +20.9 54.3% −20.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

SD-AL, a mixed riding in SD, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JOHNSON, DUSTY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Johnson, Dusty

  • Democrat Open seat

    Gronli, Nicole

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mawhiney, Billy

  • Republican Open seat

    Crabtree, Casey

  • Republican Open seat

    Jackley, Marty

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
44.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.4 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026