Georgia’s 7th District

U.S. House · GA-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 56.4%

Rich McCormick, incumbent
Democrat 43.6%

Tony Kozycki

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 90% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	96%
Orbit	Republican	90%
50/50 blend	Republican	93%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
GA-7	56.4%	43.6%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+12.5	54.9%−11.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
20/20 Insight	6–Oct 9, 2026	457	likely voters	Tony Kozycki (D) 47 Rich McCormick (R) 45	See the poll
20/20 Insight	20–Aug 26, 2026	445	likely voters	Rich McCormick (R) 46 Tony Kozycki (D) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.2% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Rich McCormick · Republican

Primary results

Held June 16, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Tony Kozycki	67.7%	11,667 votes
Republican primary	Rich McCormick	100.0%	83,746 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Rich McCormick
source
Democrat Challenger

Tony Kozycki
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 29.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

GA-9 Republican, safe seat
GA-11 Republican, competitive
GA-4 Democrat, safe seat
GA-13 Democrat, safe seat
GA-5 Democrat, safe seat
GA-6 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026