Georgia’s 11th District

U.S. House · GA-11

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 23%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.7%

John Cowan
Democrat 45.3%

Chris Harden

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (91% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	91%
Orbit	Republican	95%
50/50 blend	Republican	93%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
GA-11	54.7%	45.3%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+10.9	54.9%−9.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 2 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Miller Consulting Services Scenario 1	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026	402	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 45	See the poll
Miller Consulting Services Scenario 2	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026	402	likely voters	Chris Harden (D) 42 John Cowan (R) 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.3% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Loudermilk, Barry · Republican

Primary results

Held June 16, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Chris Harden	74.8%	39,204 votes
Republican primary	John Cowan	65.0%	44,799 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Chris Harden
source
Republican Open seat

John Cowan
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 34.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.2 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

GA-14 Republican, safe seat
GA-7 Republican, safe seat
GA-6 Democrat, safe seat
GA-4 Democrat, safe seat
GA-5 Democrat, safe seat
GA-13 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026