Riding profile

GA-4

US House district — GA · Mixed · us ga

The question

GA-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
61.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 80.8%

    Henry C. 'Hank' Johnson incumbent

  • Republican 19.2%

    Jim Duffie

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereGA-4 80.8%19.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +26.5 44.9% −25.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

GA-4, a mixed riding in GA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 81% vote share, against 19% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JOHNSON, HENRY C. 'HANK'

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Henry "Hank" Johnson, Jr. (I) 79.3%

81,997 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Jim Duffie 100.0%

17,390 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Johnson, Henry C. 'Hank'

  • Republican Open seat

    Jim Duffie

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
51.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026