Georgia’s 10th District
U.S. House · GA-10
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 23%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 84% chance (91% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 91% |
| Orbit | Republican | 84% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 88% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| GA-10 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.0%+10.8 | 54.7%−9.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 5.1% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Collins, Michael A Jr · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Pamela "Pam" Delancy | 54.4% | 35,058 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Houston Gaines | 66.9% | 59,895 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 26.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated