Riding profile

GA-10

US House district — GA · Mixed · us ga

The question

GA-10: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.9%

    Houston Gaines

  • Democrat 43.1%

    Pamela Delancy

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereGA-10 56.9%43.1%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +12.0 54.3% −11.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

GA-10, a mixed riding in GA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COLLINS, MICHAEL A JR

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Pamela "Pam" Delancy 54.4%

35,058 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Houston Gaines 66.9%

59,895 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Delancy, Pamela Mrs

  • Republican Open seat

    Gaines, Houston

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.3 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026