Riding profile

FL-1

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-1, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Valimont, Jennifer Gay

  • Republican Challenger

    Chico, Douglas Connor

  • Republican Challenger

    Dimmock, Aaron

  • Republican Challenger

    Frankman, John

  • Republican Challenger

    Patronis, Jimmy Jr.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.6%
  • Democrat 34.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-1 65.6%34.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +18.9 51.9% −17.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026