Florida’s 1st District
U.S. House · FL-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 97% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-1 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+18.9 | 54.9%−17.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 6.0% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Gay Valimont | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jimmy Patronis | 71.1% | 62,911 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 32.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 25.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated