Riding profile

FL-1

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.0%

    Jimmy Jr. Patronis

  • Democrat 37.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-1 63.0%37.0%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +18.0 54.3% −17.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-1, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Republican primary

Winner

Jimmy Patronis 71.1%

62,911 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Challenger

    Patronis, Jimmy Jr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026