Riding profile

FL-2

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-2, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DUNN, NEAL PATRICK MD, FACS

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Keith Gross 34.4%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jan 24, 2026 · bypatriot_polling

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Dunn, Neal Patrick Md, Facs

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bailey, Huy-Yen Cam Ms.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Green, Amanda Marie

  • Democrat Open seat

    Zateslo, Nicholas

  • Republican Open seat

    Gross, Keith

  • Republican Open seat

    Lewis, Nicholas Justin

  • Republican Open seat

    Murphy, Luke

  • Republican Open seat

    Norton, Jim

  • Republican Open seat

    Power, Evan Mr

  • Republican Open seat

    Rogers, Austin

  • Republican Open seat

    Rowell, Audie

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.1
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.5%
  • Democrat 45.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-2 54.5%45.5%
National averageUnited States 45.6% +8.9 52.8% −7.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
23.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026