Florida’s 2nd District

U.S. House · FL-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.5%

Austin Rogers
Democrat 45.5%

Amanda Marie Green

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 67% chance (86% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	86%
Orbit	Republican	67%
50/50 blend	Republican	77%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
FL-2	54.5%	45.5%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+10.7	54.9%−9.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Patriot Polling Scenario 1	22–Jul 26, 2026	922	likely voters	Keith Gross (R) 62 Yen Bailey (D) 35	See the poll
Patriot Polling Scenario 2	22–Jul 26, 2026	922	likely voters	Keith Gross (R) 61 Amanda Green (D) 37	See the poll
Patriot Polling Scenario 3	22–Jul 26, 2026	922	likely voters	Keith Gross (R) 60 Brice Barnes (D) 39	See the poll
Patriot Polling Scenario 4	22–Jul 26, 2026	922	likely voters	Keith Gross (R) 59 Nicholas Zateslo (D) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.6% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Dunn, Neal Patrick Md, Facs · Republican

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Amanda Marie Green	33.5%	21,415 votes
Republican primary	Austin Rogers	30.5%	26,701 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Amanda Marie Green
source
Republican Open seat

Austin Rogers
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 23.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-1 Republican, safe seat
FL-3 Republican, competitive
FL-4 Republican, toss-up
FL-15 Republican, competitive
FL-13 Republican, toss-up
FL-12 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026