Winner
Amanda Marie Green 33.5%
Riding profile
FL-2
The question
FL-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-2 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.9 | 54.3% −10.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriot Polling | 22–Jul 26 | 922 | LV | link | |
| Patriot Polling | 22–Jul 26 | 922 | LV | link | |
| Patriot Polling | 22–Jul 26 | 922 | LV | link | |
| Patriot Polling | 22–Jul 26 | 922 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
FL-2, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
DUNN, NEAL PATRICK MD, FACS
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Austin Rogers 30.5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Green, Amanda Marie
- Republican Open seat
Rogers, Austin
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026