Riding profile

OR-4

US House district — OR · Mixed · us or

The question

OR-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

OR-4, a mixed riding in OR, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HOYLE, VALERIE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Hoyle, Valerie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bird, Melissa

  • Republican Challenger

    Despain, Monique

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 56.4%
  • Republican 41.7%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOR-4 56.4%41.7%1.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +4.5 46.6% −4.9 5.4% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
7.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026