Riding profile

OR-4

US House district — OR · Mixed · us or

The question

OR-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.8%
  • Republican 38.7%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOR-4 58.8%38.7%2.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +4.4 44.9% −6.2 5.1% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

OR-4, a mixed riding in OR, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HOYLE, VALERIE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Hoyle, Valerie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bird, Melissa

  • Republican Challenger

    Despain, Monique

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
7.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026