Riding profile

OR-1

US House district — OR · Mixed · us or

The question

OR-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

OR-1, a mixed riding in OR, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BONAMICI, SUZANNE MS.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Bonamici, Suzanne Ms.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Chaudhry-Ahmad, Jamil O

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
46.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 73.0%
  • Republican 26.2%
  • Other 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOR-1 73.0%26.2%0.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +21.1 46.6% −20.4 5.4% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026