Oregon’s 2nd District
U.S. House · OR-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 93% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 93% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR-2 | 59.8% | 39.4% | 0.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.9 | 54.9%−15.5 | 1.2%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 9.9% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Cliff Bentz · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Chris Beck | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Cliff Bentz | 79.6% | 79,543 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 31.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 20.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated