Riding profile

OR-2

US House district — OR · Mixed · us or

The question

OR-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.6%
  • Democrat 38.9%
  • Other 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereOR-2 59.6%38.9%1.5%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +14.7 54.3% −15.4 5.1% −3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

OR-2, a mixed riding in OR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BENTZ, CLIFF

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bentz, Cliff

  • Democrat Challenger

    Beck, Chris

  • Democrat Challenger

    Doyle, Mary

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mueller, Rebecca Mckay

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rasmussen, Dawn

  • Democrat Challenger

    Snow, Patty

  • Republican Challenger

    Larson, Peter James

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
31.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026