Oregon’s 6th District

U.S. House · OR-6

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 59.5%

Andrea Salinas, incumbent
Republican 40.5%

David Russ

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 91% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	91%
50/50 blend	Democrat	95%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
OR-6	59.5%	40.5%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+4.6	43.9%−3.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	13.9% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Andrea Salinas · Democrat

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Andrea Salinas	98.7%	62,532 votes
Republican primary	David Russ	98.4%	44,027 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Andrea Salinas
source
Other Challenger

Faler, Jason J

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

David Russ
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 6.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

OR-1 Democrat, safe seat
OR-5 Democrat, safe seat
OR-3 Democrat, safe seat
OR-4 Democrat, safe seat
OR-2 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026