Oregon’s 5th District
U.S. House · OR-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 85% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 98% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 85% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 92% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR-5 | 55.4% | 39.7% | 4.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+0.5 | 43.9%−4.2 | 1.2%+3.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 6.9% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Janelle Bynum · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Janelle Bynum | 82.0% | 70,294 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Patti Adair | 59.6% | 43,524 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 2.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 15.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated