Riding profile

OR-5

US House district — OR · Mixed · us or

The question

OR-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.0%
  • Republican 39.5%
  • Other 5.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOR-5 55.0%39.5%5.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +0.6 44.9% −5.4 5.1% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

OR-5, a mixed riding in OR, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BYNUM, JANELLE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Bynum, Janelle

  • Republican Challenger

    Adair, Patti

  • Republican Challenger

    Lockwood, Jonathan

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026