Riding profile

OR-5

US House district — OR · Mixed · us or

The question

OR-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

OR-5, a mixed riding in OR, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BYNUM, JANELLE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Bynum, Janelle

  • Republican Challenger

    Adair, Patti

  • Republican Challenger

    Lockwood, Jonathan

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.0
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.6%
  • Republican 42.6%
  • Other 4.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOR-5 52.6%42.6%4.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +0.7 46.6% −4.1 5.4% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026