New York’s 21st District

U.S. House · NY-21

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 41%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 49.4%

Anthony Constantino
Democrat 44.2%

Blake Gendebien
Other 6.4%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 77% chance (77% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	77%
Orbit	Republican	77%
50/50 blend	Republican	77%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
NY-21	49.4%	44.2%	6.4%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+5.5	54.9%−10.7	1.2%+5.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

8 polls, 9 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	12–Oct 13, 2026	—	likely voters	Anthony Constantino (R) 46 Blake Gendebien (D) 44	See the poll
Siena University Times Union \| WAMC \| WPTZ-NBC5	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026	496	likely voters	Blake Gendebien (D) 46 Anthony Constantino (R) 42 Chris Schmidt (Ind.) 5	See the poll
Impact Research	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	500	likely voters	Anthony Constantino (R) 48 Blake Gendebien (D) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 1	9–Sep 10, 2026	557	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 53 Generic Democrat (D) 40	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 2	9–Sep 10, 2026	557	registered voters	Anthony Constantino (R) 48 Blake Gendebien (D) 43	See the poll
Impact Research	Aug 30, 2026 – Sep 2, 2026	500	likely voters	Anthony Constantino (R) 47 Blake Gendebien (D) 44	See the poll
J.L. Partners	15–Aug 17, 2026	500	likely voters	Anthony Constantino (R) 53 Blake Gendebien (D) 40	See the poll
Surveyusa WNYT-TV Albany	4–Aug 8, 2026	612	likely voters	Blake Gendebien (D) 43 Anthony Constantino (R) 39 Chris Schmidt (Ind.) 5	See the poll
Impact Research	26–May 31, 2026	500	likely voters	Anthony Constantino (R) 45 Blake Gendebien (D) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.9% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Stefanik, Elise M. · Republican

Primary results

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Blake Gendebien	65.0%	15,164 votes
Republican primary	Anthony Constantino	59.5%	26,494 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Blake Gendebien
source
Republican Open seat

Anthony Constantino
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 20.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NY-20 Democrat, safe seat
NY-22 Democrat, safe seat
NY-24 Republican, competitive
NY-19 Democrat, safe seat
NY-18 Democrat, safe seat
NY-25 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026