Riding profile

NY-21

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-21: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.3%

    Anthony Thomas Constantino

  • Democrat 42.3%

    Blake Gendebien

  • Other 6.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-21 51.3%42.3%6.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +6.4 54.3% −12.1 5.1% +1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling The Bench 9–Sep 10 557 RV
Republican 53 Democrat 40
link
Public Policy Polling The Bench 9–Sep 10 557 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 43
link
Impact Research Aug 30 – Sep 2 500 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 44
link
J.L. Partners 15–Aug 17 500 LV
Republican 53 Democrat 40
link
Surveyusa WNYT-TV Albany 4–Aug 8 612 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 39
link
Impact Research 26–May 31 500 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

NY-21, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STEFANIK, ELISE M.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Blake Gendebien 65.0%

15,164 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Anthony Constantino 59.5%

26,494 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Gendebien, Blake

  • Republican Open seat

    Constantino, Anthony Thomas

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
20.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026