Robert Smullen 43%
Riding profile
NY-21
The question
NY-21: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
NY-21, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
STEFANIK, ELISE M.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Stefanik, Elise M.
-
Democrat Open seat Amoriell, Stuart Jameson
- Democrat Open seat
Collins, Paula
- Democrat Open seat
Gendebien, Blake
- Democrat Open seat
Hewitt, Dylan
- Republican Open seat
Constantino, Anthony Thomas
- Republican Open seat
Smullen, Robert
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-21 | 52.3% | 41.1% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +5.7 | 51.9% −10.8 | 5.4% +1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 26–May 31 | 500 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
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- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026