Riding profile

NY-20

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-20: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.9%
  • Republican 27.2%
  • Other 12.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-20 59.9%27.2%12.9%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +5.6 44.9% −17.7 5.1% +7.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-20, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TONKO, PAUL DAVID

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tonko, Paul David

  • Republican Challenger

    Ambrosio, Ralph

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026