Riding profile

NY-20

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-20: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-20, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TONKO, PAUL DAVID

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tonko, Paul David

  • Republican Challenger

    Ambrosio, Ralph

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.5%
  • Republican 30.3%
  • Other 12.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-20 57.5%30.3%12.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.6 46.6% −16.4 5.4% +6.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026