Riding profile

NY-22

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-22: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.7%
  • Republican 33.5%
  • Other 10.8%

    William A IV Staton IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-22 55.7%33.5%10.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +1.3 44.9% −11.4 5.1% +5.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-22, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 34% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MANNION, JOHN W

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Staton, William A Iv

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
9.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026