New York’s 22nd District
U.S. House · NY-22
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 94% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-22 | 56.1% | 33.7% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+1.2 | 43.9%−10.2 | 1.2%+9.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.5% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
John Mannion · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | John Mannion | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Kailee Buller | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 9.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 22.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated