Riding profile

NY-22

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-22: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-22, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MANNION, JOHN W

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mannion, John W

  • Other Challenger

    Staton, William A Iv

  • Republican Challenger

    Buller, Kailee

  • Republican Challenger

    Lemondes, John

  • Republican Challenger

    Salka, John Joseph Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.3%
  • Republican 36.6%
  • Other 10.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-22 53.3%36.6%10.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +1.4 46.6% −10.1 5.4% +4.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
9.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026