Riding profile

NY-25

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-25: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-25, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MORELLE, JOSEPH D

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Morelle, Joseph D

  • Democrat Challenger

    Traywick, Sherita Mrs.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wilt, Robin

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcintyre, Virginia

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.3%
  • Republican 35.2%
  • Other 7.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-25 57.3%35.2%7.5%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.4 46.6% −11.4 5.4% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
15.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026