New York’s 25th District
U.S. House · NY-25
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-25 | 60.1% | 32.4% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+5.2 | 43.9%−11.5 | 1.2%+6.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 8.0% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Joseph D. Morelle · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Joseph D. Morelle | 63.6% | 24,085 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Virginia McIntyre | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 15.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 27.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated