Winner
Joseph D. Morelle 63.6%
Riding profile
NY-25
The question
NY-25: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 27.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-25 | 59.7% | 32.2% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +5.4 | 44.9% −12.8 | 5.1% +3.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NY-25, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 32% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MORELLE, JOSEPH D
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Morelle, Joseph D
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026