New York’s 23rd District
U.S. House · NY-23
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 80% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 96% |
| Orbit | Republican | 80% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 88% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-23 | 51.9% | 39.1% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+8.0 | 54.9%−15.8 | 1.2%+7.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.8% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Nick Langworthy · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Aaron Gies | 72.1% | 13,552 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Nick Langworthy | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 21.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated