Riding profile

NY-23

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-23: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NY-23, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LANGWORTHY, NICK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Langworthy, Nick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Collins, Stephen

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gies, Aaron Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Stocker, Kevin

  • Republican Challenger

    King, James George

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.7%
  • Democrat 36.0%
  • Other 11.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-23 52.7%36.0%11.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +6.0 51.9% −15.9 5.4% +5.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026