Winner
Aaron Gies 72.1%
Riding profile
NY-23
The question
NY-23: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-23 | 49.6% | 38.4% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +4.7 | 54.3% −15.9 | 5.1% +6.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NY-23, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LANGWORTHY, NICK
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Gies, Aaron Dr.
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026