Riding profile

NY-24

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-24: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NY-24, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TENNEY, CLAUDIA

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Tenney, Claudia

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ellman, Alissa

  • Democrat Challenger

    Holden, Steven Wesley Sr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kastenbaum, Diana Kisiel

  • Other Challenger

    Sloan, Todd

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.5%
  • Democrat 36.2%
  • Other 10.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-24 53.5%36.2%10.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +6.9 51.9% −15.6 5.4% +4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
22.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026