New York’s 24th District
U.S. House · NY-24
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 81% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 81% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 88% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-24 | 50.7% | 39.0% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+6.8 | 54.9%−15.9 | 1.2%+9.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.0% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Claudia Tenney · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Alissa J. Ellman | 61.9% | 9,933 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Claudia Tenney | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 22.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated