Riding profile

NY-24

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-24: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.5%
  • Democrat 38.6%

    Alissa Ellman

  • Other 10.9%

    Todd Sloan IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-24 50.5%38.6%10.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +5.5 54.3% −15.7 5.1% +5.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-24, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TENNEY, CLAUDIA

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Alissa J. Ellman 61.9%

9,933 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ellman, Alissa

  • Other Challenger

    Sloan, Todd

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
22.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026