Riding profile

NY-19

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-19: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-19, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 49% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RILEY, JOSH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Riley, Josh

  • Republican Challenger

    Oberacker, Peter Karl Jr

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.9
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 48.6%
  • Republican 39.8%
  • Other 11.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-19 48.6%39.8%11.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −3.2 46.6% −6.9 5.4% +6.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
1.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026