Riding profile

NY-19

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-19: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.0%
  • Republican 36.8%

    Peter Karl Jr Oberacker

  • Other 12.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-19 51.0%36.8%12.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −3.3 44.9% −8.2 5.1% +7.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NY-19, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RILEY, JOSH

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Republican primary

Winner

Peter K. Oberacker 77.8%

13,582 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Challenger

    Oberacker, Peter Karl Jr

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
1.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026