New York’s 19th District
U.S. House · NY-19
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 83% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 97% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 83% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 90% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-19 | 51.5% | 36.9% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%−3.4 | 43.9%−6.9 | 1.2%+10.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 5.6% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Josh Riley · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Josh Riley | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Peter K. Oberacker | 77.8% | 13,582 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 1.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 14.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated